Statistical Return Calculator — Live Data
Powerball — Statistical Return Analysis
Shows the long-run average return per ticket across all possible outcomes — not a prediction of what you will win.
Current Jackpot
$47.1M
annuity value
After-Tax Cash Value
$16.4M
if you won today
Avg return from smaller prizes
$0.261
per ticket (all non-jackpot tiers)
Statistical return per $2 ticket
$0.317
vs. $2 paid
How to read this: the house edge is still in effect
For every $2 ticket, the statistical average return is $0.317 — made up of $0.261 from smaller prizes plus a tiny share of the jackpot spread across all 292 million possible tickets. This is normal for lottery play at any jackpot size. The break-even point ($1.5B) is where the jackpot would need to be for the math to technically favor playing — but most players play for the life-changing upside, not the statistics.
Statistical Break-Even Point
$1.5B
Jackpot level where statistical return = ticket cost
3% there
$1.4B to go
$0$1.5B break-even
Fewer than 5% of jackpots in history have crossed this threshold. The break-even point does not account for jackpot splitting when ticket sales surge at high jackpot levels.
Calculation Assumptions
Federal tax: 37%
State tax: 5% (avg)
Cash value: 60% of annuity
Ticket price: $2
Jackpot split: not modeled
Power Play: not included